Trilogics™ News
TriLogics™ News
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Being Selective with TriLogics
Recently Intervest Global Live discussed the success one of our experienced TriLogics users reported when he used a slight variation on the Banker Trifecta guidelines. When we wrote that news item Intervest Global Live stressed how important it was for newer TriLogics users to strictly follow the guidelines just as they are taught in training. It’s worth noting however, that the actions of the experienced TriLogics user we referred to earlier are not isolated. One Intervest Global Live senior trainer recently mentioned that he had spoken to more than one experienced user who said they were “selective” in their trading.
The senior trainer went on to say that he had spoken with several experienced TriLogics users who reported that they fully understood the indicators, what they meant, and “mostly” followed the guidelines but also set up their own limits. Once they had done this, they decided to be selective in their trading. What they meant by that was they took responsibility for their trades and sometimes didn’t trade on races that technically fit the TriLogics guidelines. They said that this was because their experience and comfort level dictated that some of those races didn’t meet their personal limits.
An example that the senior trainer related involved a race where a group of three runners for second technically fit the trading guidelines and therefore the race had all the criteria to be a trading race. But when one of these experienced users was looking at the same race he indicated he would not trade that race. When the senior trader asked the reason behind that decision, the experienced user told him that he wouldn’t trade it because the two runners below the group of three were starting to attract virtually the same amount of money as the group above it. Although they hadn’t yet achieved the numbers to move up into the group above, they were moving very close to it. The experienced user went on to say that in a situation like that he felt it was a borderline trading race and therefore he chose not to trade it. He added that if it turned out to be a winning race and he hadn’t traded on it he wouldn’t complain. It was his money, it was his choice, and he was willing to live with his personal decision.
Our senior trainer states that he has come across any number of users who use the same approach and the trainer doesn’t argue with those users as long as they are a.) experienced; b.) truly understand why they’re making their choices; and c.) are willing to accept the results. With those three conditions met the trainer has no problem. “Ultimately your trading decisions are your own,” says our trainer. “We do strongly recommend that you follow the guidelines until you fully understand the indicators, what they mean, and are willing to accept responsibility for your results.” Until you reach that point, count on our research and experience since we’ve already done the long term testing and analysis. Take advantage of that, and following the guidelines.
Date: Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Winning with a TriLogics System
Intervest Global Live received a call the other day from an experienced TriLogics user who wanted to tell us about some great results he’d achieved recently. Lately, we’ve been talking about the importance of sticking to the TriLogics trading guidelines developed through years of testing by Intervest Global Live. For newer TriLogics users especially, it’s important to stick to those guidelines as they provide the system for you to follow—and having a “tried and true” system is the key to TriLogics success. Intervest Global Live will go into more depth on the importance of a system in upcoming weeks, as it should not be underestimated. Today we will talk about results passed on to us which were achieved from a system that an experienced user has told he uses, which is a variation on TriLogics trading guidelines. Before going into that, it’s important to note that this user has tested his system over a long period of time and takes responsibility for its highs and lows. It is mentioned here simply as an example of what can be achieved using TriLogics in combination with one’s own initiative.
The races he was discussing took place last week on Thursday the 19th of August. “My system is a variation on the Banker Trifecta,” he says. “My philosophy is that since I’m game enough to take a Banker Trifecta, I’m game enough to tweak it a little bit. In the following races MR03, BR03, SR06, and AR07 I took 1 runner for first, 1 runner for second, and the rest of the field for third.” He stressed that he still “follows the rules and makes sure the runner for second is still 70%. He went on to add that this is a system he’s tested and developed and he’s very happy with the results. “If the race fits my criteria,” he says, “I’ll take it.” In this case the results he reported using this system provided him with winnings of $867 on those 4 races alone. (It should be noted that he also reports using traditional Trifecta and Percentage Return trading guidelines to add additional winnings for the day.) Specifically his results on $200 trades were: a win of $244 on MR03, a loss of $201 on BR03, a win of $1023 on SR06, and a loss of $199 on AR07.
As glad as we are to hear of his successes, one of the most important things to take away from this is that this user takes responsibility for his results and his use of TriLogics. To get to this point, he has applied himself to going over data, testing strategies, using them with his eyes wide open and owning the results. In fact, this TriLogics user’s approach to trading and the success he enjoys is the result of an approach that leads to success in most other fields, too: apply yourself, see what works and what doesn’t, then do more of the former than the latter. The result for this owner? As he puts it, TriLogics helps him make even more money than the results we post on our website. Good on ya!
Date: Wednesday, August 18, 2010
TriLogics Inclusions, Threats, and Allowances
If you’ve completed your TriLogics training then it’s very likely that you will recall your Intervest Global Live trainer talking about “inclusions”, threats”, and “allowances”. These terms refer to runners that you need to keep an eye on because of the late market money they are attracting, and adjustments you should make to get the most out of the Intervest Global Live trading guidelines. We’ll take a brief look at those terms in the context of making sure you adhere to the TriLogics trading guidelines and resist the temptation to force a trade (beyond an “allowance”) when TriLogics has not given a race the “green light”. Remember: Intervest Global Live developed TriLogics to be operated according to a system. We strongly recommend that you don’t force a no-trade race into a trading race by making “allowances on allowances”. When you do that you’ll be on your way to punting instead of trading according to a system.
A perfect example of the danger of trying to force a race into a trading race might have taken place on the 11th of August with SR05. If you had followed the guidelines for the Trifecta module you would have resisted temptation and let the race pass as a no trade race—even though by removing a few ticks the race would have moved into the black; even though later on you would have seen that the top favourites won and you would have secured a profit of over $700. Why was it wiser to resist even if you would have won? Because hindsight is 20-20 and because you would have broken guidelines that make TriLogics a trading system instead of a punting tool.
Let’s see why a simple breach of the guidelines could open the door to several problems. Someone may have looked at SR05 and been tempted to remove a tick or two out of column 2 or 3. Doing that would have made it look like a trading race because the red highlight on Top Combination would have turned black. But forcing this race not only would have violated the Money Gap guidelines, but it would have also ignored the threat that runner #1 posed to #4. Look at the money they are attracting at the 1 minute mark. They’re virtually identical. So, if you’re going to include #4 to finish 1st you have to include #1, too. If you do that, you have to remove the ticks for 2nd place for the #6 and #5 runners to keep it black. This is what we meant by problems compounding when you begin to ignore guidelines and force races. At this point you would have abandoned the system and moved squarely into punting.
It’s important to remember that TriLogics is all about using mathematical statistics to make a steady profit. It is not a punting tool. The difference is that history has proven that our system will help you succeed over time. History has also proven that most punters lose much more than they win. With the TriLogics system you are given consistent reasons why you must do what you do, and the guidelines reflect those reasons. When you follow this system will you sometimes miss what otherwise might have been a “winning” race? Of course. But you will also miss out on trading on many losing races. We’ve spent many hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars, developing our guidelines and testing them. Do yourself a favour: learn the guidelines and stick with them, and resist the temptation to force races. You’ll end up happier in the long run.
Date: Wednesday, August 11, 2010
TriLogics and the "Goldilocks" approach
If you've already gone through all of your TriLogics training, then you probably remember your Intervest Global Live trainer informing you that TriLogics Trifecta module is all about getting you—quickly and accurately—to a place where you have the best combination of runners selected to make a great return. You might have even heard your Intervest Global Live trainer refer to it as the "Goldilocks and the Three Bears" approach: you don't want too few runners and you don't want too many. You want just the right amount. And that's exactly what Intervest Global Live helps you do with our combination of TriLogics software and training. We often discuss tips and techniques that can improve your results, and we'll look at another one today, but they all boil down to one thing: getting a mathematically proven combination of runners to help you make great money from the massive cashflow of the TAB.
One of the proven techniques to getting things "just right" is called the Third Place Cutback Allowance. TriLogics software always highlights the statistically strong Money Gaps in red. But TriLogics owners are trained to use techniques (like the Cutback) where looking beyond "the red" puts you further "into the black." A perfect example of this happened last week at Doomben.
It was BR03 on the 4th of August and the first two runners (6 & 5) had a very clearly defined Money Gap for 1st and 2nd place. Those two runners were clearly attracting the vast majority of money—no question. The next group of runners was also nicely defined for 3rd place. Note that this group did not end on a red Money Gap, though. In fact, if you had expanded the 3rd place group all the way down to the final red Money Gap (which fell on the #3 runner) the race would have become a no-trade race, which would have been a shame because everything else indicated there was money to be made on this race. Using the Cutback, as taught in training, was just the way to keep this race a solid winning prospect.
The Third Place Cutback allowance advises you to check boxes to the red Money Gap, unless you can cover at least 90% of the money for third and have 1.3 or higher in the Money Gap column. Statistics show, and history has proven, that overall it is more profitable to use this technique in these situations. Basically, what you are doing is focusing your trading dollars where the majority of the money is, instead of spreading it around where it's extremely unlikely to be profitable. In this case, our strategy recommends that you only tick to the number 9 runner, which allowed you to cover 91.9% of the money and had a Money Gap of 1.33. Using this technique helps you avoid putting money on the bottom 5 runners that had virtually no market support. As a group, their support was well below the rest of the runners selected for 3rd place.
As it turned out, the top 2 runners (as supported by the market) were the top two finishers and the fourth favourite (#4) came in third. That combination led to a positive result of $529 as posted on our website. TriLogics is about following the money and intelligently distributing your trading dollars—not chasing hunches. Using the Cutback helps you do that with confidence and consistency. Stick with that and follow the rest of the Intervest guidelines and you'll get results that are "just right"…and you won’t have 3 bears chasing your around, either.
Date: Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Watch the "Business End" with TriLogics
Recently Intervest Global Live news items have discussed races where secondary indicators told TriLogics power users that circumstances were favourable for trading on a particular Percent Return race. Intervest Global Live senior trainers point out that in those cases secondary indicators would have helped TriLogics owners end up with more money in their account. We also stressed that those decisions are to help people become advanced users and are not directed at new TriLogics users. Today Intervest Global Live will look at the opposite situation: a "border line" race where the secondary indicators on TriLogics would have provided you with evidence to help you avoid trading a race and therefore avoid a loss—which is just as important as recording a win. If you watch where the money goes, and when, you'll be on your way to accepting responsibility for your success and getting the most out of TriLogics.
On Fri 23 July at Geelong (MR09), using the Percent Return module, a situation arose where primary indicators suggested TriLogics users should be trading against a weak favourite. But for the observant there were secondary indicators that should have given TriLogics users reason for concern. Here is the situation: At the 2 minute mark the #2 runner, which was the Favourite at 4.80 in the W column, was 5th in total money support. As TriLogics owners would have noticed, Intervest guidelines recommended choosing the group consisting of the number 10, 3, 11, and 9 runners against the #2 runner. But, (and here's where following the money is important), TriLogics owners who were keeping their eye on what was happening with late market money movement would have noticed the market was moving against the preliminary advice to trade against the #2 runner. In fact, even at the 2 minute mark #2 was already beginning to attract a considerable amount of late market money relative to the runner with the strongest cumulative support at that point (#10). This was the first warning sign to a power user that a problem might have been brewing. Lots of late money moving to a weak favourite can mean danger because the formerly weak runner is gaining support—getting stronger.
Sure enough, at the one minute mark that #2 runner skyrocketed to the top of the list of cumulative support and it also had the strongest late market support, attracting nearly twice as much money as the 2nd favourite. Note: At this point the technical guidelines still graded this as a trading race. But as discussed in training, this large flow of late market money should have served as a second warning sign that although technically a trading race, it had troubling aspects. As one senior trainer puts it, "We're most interested in the 'business end' of where the money is going. Of course, the business end is late market money. In this case that late market money is going to a weak favourite, and that danger sign is something advanced TriLogics users take into account. Even newer owners should remember that in training we always advise clients to be aware of this late movement and to begin to take responsibility for whether they want to trade in a race."
So, to recap: even though at the 1 minute mark it is still technically a trading race, due to the large amount of money #2 is attracting, keen observers would have noted there were red flags waving around the statistically "weak" favourite and decided it really was becoming too strong a favourite to trade against. At that point, they very well might have chosen to avoid trading against the favourite. If you had chosen to abandon the race you would have avoided a loss, because as you may already know, the #2 runner was the winner.
The important point to take away from this is to follow the business end of the money movement. If that money movement tells you that something doesn't seem right, you should pay attention. Of course, it's up to you whether you want to trade that race—these are decisions that advanced users make nearly every trading day and are willing to take responsibility for them. When you are able to do this, you will know that you are beginning to get the very most out of your TriLogics software.